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Friday, December 18, 2015

 

Aurora Watch and Geomagnetic alert (18-19 December)

The Australian Space Weather Service (SWS formerly the IPS) has now  issued a Geomagnetic Alert an Aurora Watch for possible aurora on 18-19 December UT from a CME impact (this translates to early the 19th to probably late 19th early 20th). The NOAA site has a predicted G1 storm for 18 Dec (UT, morning 19 Dec AEDST) and a G2 storm for 19 Dec (UT, 19-20 Dec AEDST). 

In the last geomagnetic storm activity was seen form 9:30-11:30 pm, in previous storms the best views were from 11:30 pm - 12:30 am but there was activity the following day. There is a strong possibility we will get unaided eye visible aurora in both Tasmania and the Southern mainland based on previous events, IF the CME impact occurs outside of daylight hours. Evening skies have the first quarter Moon,  which should not interfere too much with seeing aurora.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows,beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora and a large green "blob" has been seen, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences".

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

The all sky aurora camera in Northern Tasmania at Cressy may be helpful.
<http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/4/2>

SUBJ: IPS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0025 UT ON 18 Dec 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

A Coronal Mass Ejection sequence is expected to impact the Earth late
on the UT day Dec 18 to early Dec 19, possibly resulting in
significant space weather activity and visible auroras during local
nighttime hours. Based on expected arrival times the most significant
space weather activity may occur during local daylight hours in the
Australian region. Aurora alerts will follow should favourable space
weather activity eventuate.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 15/60
ISSUED AT 2224UT/17 DECEMBER 2015
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Two coronal mass ejections observed Dec 16 are expected to impact
the Earth in sequence late Dec 18 to early Dec 19. Brief minor
to major geomagnetic storm conditions may result.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 18-19 DECEMBER 2015
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
18 Dec:  Quiet to Active
19 Dec:  Active to Minor Storm

Further monitoring at
http://www.ips.gov.au


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