Wednesday, January 08, 2014
Aurora Alert, January 9-10 2014
Remember giant sunspot AR1944? Well it let off an X class flare which produced an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection.
This is anticipated to arrive at Earth on January 9 (Thursday) around 08:00 UT (which is 19:00 AEDST) +/- 7 hours! (so it could arrive as early as midday or as late as 2 am on the morning of the 10th).
NOAA predicts G2 and G1 class geomagnetic storms, which have the potential to produce aurora in Tasmania, Southern Victoria, Possibly Southern WA and South Island New Zealand. The Australian IPS has an anodyne prediction of "active".
The Moon is at First Quarter, so will not interfere much, and will be low in the late evening if the storm arrives later. As always, look to the south and look for shifting glows (greenish red for Tassie and NZ, red for Victoria and WA), dark sky sites are best. Some idea of the sorts of things it might be possible to see is http://astroblogger.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/images-from-saturday-nights-aurora.html
The Answer is "maybe", the CME has not im pacted yet. se we have no overall feeling for waht is going to happen. If nothing has happened by midnight I would say head for bed (which of course means there will be a marvellous display immediately you head bedwards, whereas if you stay up all night nothing will happen)
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