Tuesday, May 14, 2019
[Aurora Alert] Geomagnetic warning and Aurora Watch (14-17 May 2019)
The Moon is waxing and will interfere a bit with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.
It is hard to predict how any aurora will look, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good (the Full Moon aurora on August 26 was good for those with clear skies despite the Moonlight, as was very active despite initial predictions of not much happening).
Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc, blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora last despite the moonlight.
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.
A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 14-17 MAY 2019
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 May: Unsettled to Active
15 May: Active to Minor Storm
16 May: Minor Storm
17 May: Initially at Minor storm, then Quiet
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0617 UT ON 14 May 2019 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
Solar wind parameters suggest that the Earth may be currently under
the influence of unanticipated CME. There is a chance aurora may be
visible tonight (14 May) over southern Australian regions,
particularly for Tasmania. The previous two slow moving CMEs
originating from disappearing solar filaments are still expected to
impact the Earth around 05UT on 15 May and 09UT on 16 May,
respectively. Should periods of sustained southward IMF occur, auroral
displays over southern Australian regions are likely to continue on
the local nights of 15 and 16 May. Further Warnings and/or alerts will
follow if a geoeffective CME is observed and/or significant
geomagnetic activity actually occurs.
Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.
Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.