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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

 

Geomagnetic alert (30-31 December, 2015)

The Australian Space Weather Service (SWS ) has now  issued a Geomagnetic Alert for possible geomagnetic storms on 30-31 December UT from a earth facing  CME. Impact time is uncertain, but various ranges from 11 pm 30th AEDST to 5 am 31st AEST have been predicted. A G3 storm (Planetary K index 7 or over) has been predicted from the impact (probably 2 am is most likely).

There is a strong possibility we will get unaided eye visible aurora in both Tasmania and the Southern mainland, even possibly as far north as NSW/QLD border, based on previous storms (and if the magnetic field of the storm has a favourable orientation, this cannot be predicted in advance).

Evening skies are Moon free, until around 11 pm daylight saving time, when a waning Moon rises. This is near last quarter, which will not interfere too much with seeing aurora .

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora and a large green "blob" has been seen, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences".

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

The all sky aurora camera in Northern Tasmania at Cressy may be helpful.
<http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/4/2>

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 15/63
ISSUED AT 2347UT/28 DECEMBER 2015
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The effect of a coronal mass ejection that erupted in association
with the M1.8 flare (1245UT/28 December) may raise the geomagnetic
activity levels to major storm levels on 30 December and keep
the activity enhanced to minor storm levels on 31 December.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 30-31 DECEMBER 2015
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
30 Dec:  Unsettled to major storm
31 Dec:  Unsettled to minor storm

Further monitoring at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather

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