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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

 

Geomagnetic alert - again (24-26 June)

Aurora are like buses, for ages none come along then a whole bunch show up at once.

A geomagnetic alert has been issued by the Australian  IPS for the 24nd-26th due to an anticipated impact from a Coronal Mass Ejection that will add to the residual activity of the last few CME. The impact time is may be anywhere from 4 am on the 25th (which is still 24th in Universal Time, which all these alerts are made in) to 4 pm on the 25th, with 10 am being most likely. This could translate into aurora at any time during the early morning  of the 25th and possibly evening of the 25th (or disappointingly, during daylight hours). 

Aurora, if they flare up, are likely to be seen in Tasmania, possibly Victoria (as was seen yesterday in between gaps in the cloud), and if conditions are favourable in southern WA and Southern South Australia. Even with a prediction of minor geomagnetic storms there is also a chance no aurora will occur. Unfortunately predictions are for a lot of  South-eastern Australia to remain under cloud.The waxing Moon, if the cloud goes, may make things a bit more difficult, but is still not too bright, and will be gone or low in the early morning.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora and a large green "blob" has been seen.



The IPS site is being hammered at the moment, you can also try the Australian Aurora service and the NOAA spaceweather prediction page.
[the NOAA site s predicting a G3 strong storm, but that is for high latitudes, for mid latitudes like us it is more likely to be minor, as predicted by the Australian IPS]


The all sky aurora camera in Southern Tasmania at Cressy may be helpful (but has been acting up).
<http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/4/2>

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 15/25
ISSUED AT 0130UT/24 JUNE 2015
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 24-26 JUNE 2015
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
24 Jun:  Unsettled with possible Active to Minor Storm periods.
25 Jun:  Minor Storm conditions.
26 Jun:  Unsettled to Active.

Further monitoring at
http://www.ips.gov.au

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Comments:
Hi Ian,

what are the chances of seeing this happening in SA soil? there were some light sighting of the 22nd occurence at Victor Harbour, but from my understanding this one is weaker than the first one, so even less likely?
 
Far less likely this time around, not impossible, but not very likely
 
Hi Ian,

I'm considering driving down to the Western coast of Victoria (Point Lonsdale - Torquay area) and was wondering whether you think my chances of seeing the aurora are higher tonight or tomorrow night? I intended to stay overnight, ideally somewhere with ocean views.
 
Sorry I should add that today's date is the 25/6/2015, my plan was to go tonight as your "Geomagnetic activity forecast" is for "unsettled to active" for the 26th Jun. So I figured my best chances are after midnight tonight.


 
What about Friday night 26 June in the same area?
 
The CME arrived early, and was weaker than expected. This evening (25th, tonight) is likely to have only background activity, possibly a bit more active around 4 am on the 26th (unlikely to reach the mainland though) and the evening of the 26th is a bust, background activity only.
 
Thanks for your help Ian, much appreciated.
 
Hi Ian,

I was lucky enough to witness & photograph the aurora just before 06:00 on the morning of the 23rd of June 2015 from... Wait for it...

La Perouse (Botany Bay) in Sydney!

I'd be happy to email you a couple of the photos if you're interested in seeing them or even displaying them online somewhere. Even if you're not, I'm still happy after witnessing something so rare, something that one wouldn't even dare dream of hoping for!!!
 
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