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Friday, September 12, 2014

 

Aurora Watch Friday 12 September, 2014

A double impact is expected from a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection from an M class flare, and a nearly full on impact from a CME from an X class flare during this coming Friday.

The Australian IPS has released an aurora watch for Friday (12 September) to early Saturday (13 September). If aurora occur, this may be visible in Tasmania, New Zealand, and possibly Southern Vic, WA and Southern South Australia.

If conditions are right aurora might even extend further north. However, geomagnetic storms are fickle, and the storm may arrive in daylight or well after Moon rise, or may fizzle out entirely .. or might just be spectacular.

Depending on when the incoming coronal Mass Ejection from the X-class flare strikes, we may see Minor Storm to Major Storm periods in the late evening to early morning. At the moment the prediction is for  the X class CME to strike around 10 pm AEST (+/- 7 hours!). 

The Moon is waning after full Moon on the 8th, so the skies will be fairly dark until Moon rise around 10:00 pm. As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, recently beams have been reported too. As usual, dark sky sites will have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow  around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

The all sky aurora camera in Southern Tasmania at Cressy may be of help in monitoring for aurora
http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/4/2

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 14/16 ISSUED AT 0510UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2014
_____________________________________________________________
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Sep: Unsettled with possible Minor Storm periods
12 Sep: Active to Major Storm levels
13 Sep: Active
Cheers! Ian

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