Thursday, September 24, 2015
Call off the Apocalypse, the Lunar Tetrad was a Triad!
The April 2015 Lunar Eclipse was not a total eclipse, so the apocalypse is averted. Seeing as we have survived the Asteroid Apocalypse, the Next Big Thing is the final in the Tertrad of Blood Moons, the Total Lunar Eclipse on 28 September.
I've already written why the whole "Tetrad of Lunar Eclipses" and the "end of Days" is nonsense. A tetrad occurs roughly every 10-20 years. The apocalypse failed to materialise after the last tetrads in 1985-1986 and in 2003-2004 and after the many, many more over the past centuries, so it is not going to happen now.
However, there is a far more important reason this coming tetrad will not herald the "End of Days".
It is not a tetrad
The April 2015 Lunar Eclipse, the third eclipse in the terad, was not a total eclipse, so the apocalypse is averted. The original calculations for the length and depth of the April eclipse depended on an old model of depending on the shape model for the Earth's shadow and how the edge of the Earth's shadow is defined.
However, with newer models and calculations, the April eclipse turned out to be quite short. And in reality, it was not quite total either.
You can see images here. My own not so flash images are here, but the bottom line is that the April 4 eclipse was not total. Only by a whisker but still not total.
So, no total eclipse, no tetrad, not "End of Days".
Now those of you who do get to see the eclipse (not Australia unfortunately) can view this lovely spectacle in peace.
Labels: eclipse, Hoax, Moon, Pseudoscience
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
No, Neither an Asteroid nor a Comet will hit us in September
The intertubes are currently buzzing with rumours about the imminent collision of an asteroid (or 2.5 mile wide comet) with Earth over the next few days (some are quite specific stating that the asteroid or comet will hit on the 23rd of September, others give a range of dates between the 20-30th of September). Often the headline says "NASA confirms", which it hasn't.
The identity of the comet or asteroid is either not given or identified with 2015 GA14 (which misses Earth by 77 times the distance between Earth and the Moon) and 2012 TTD (which misses Earth by 21 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon). Neither are 2.5 kilometres wide. Neither will hit us.
There are three other asteroids that come close in this period (33 metres to 100 metres in diameter, nowhere near 2.5 Km wide), but they also miss the Earth by over 14 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon. To put this in perspective, Apollo 11, travelling at over 7 kilometres per seconds took 3 days to get from the Earth to the Moon. That's a long, long way away.
So not, we are not going to be hit by them. And there are no big asteroids sneaking up on us. Seriously, amateur astronomers are picking up smaller rocks than this all the time so a 2.5 Km rock or comet would be spotted well before time.
Heck, as I write we are watching comet C/2013 US10 head towards perihelion, it is coming nowhere near Earth.
But it should be obvious that this is all a hoax, remember how asteroid DA2013 cl2 was going to wipe out all life on Earth back in 2013? That was a hoax, as was asteroid 2014 AZ5, How about the Mayan Calender apocalypse? Comet Elenin? Comet ISON? All theses "end of the worlds" were hoaxes which passed (although comets Elenin and ISON were real comets, we were never in any danger from them).
So to help you ignore the hysteria over rocks that will come nowhere near us, I give you the I've made a Celestia file for 2012 TT5. As usual, copy the data here to a plain text file (2012TT5.ssc) and copy the file to the Celestia extras folder.
====================2012TTD.ssc==========================
"2012 TT5" "Sol"
#Data from MPC http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/MPEph/MPEph.html
#Epoch 2015 June 27.0 TT = JDT 2457200.5 MPC
#M 346.05031 (2000.0) P Q
#n 0.32951954 Peri. 273.02601 +0.24722473 +0.96748968 T = 2457242.83342 JDT
#a 2.0759423 Node 11.70885 -0.75140474 +0.22617386 q = 0.7171772
#e 0.6545293 Incl. 15.23443 -0.61177679 +0.11317733 Earth MOID = 0.05522 AU
#P 2.99 H 21.7 G 0.15 U 5
#From 59 observations 2012 Oct. 6-Nov. 5, mean residual 0".32.
{
Class "asteroid"
Mesh "ky26.cmod"
Texture "asteroid.jpg"
Radius 0.1 # maximum semi-axis
MeshCenter [ -0.000718 -0.000099 0.000556 ]
EllipticalOrbit
{
Epoch 2457200.5 # Epoch 2015 June 27.0 TT = JDT 2457200.5
Period 2.99 # P
SemiMajorAxis 2.0759423 # a
Eccentricity 0.0520041 # e
Inclination 0.6545293 # Incl.
AscendingNode 11.70885 # Node
ArgOfPericenter 273.02601 # Peri
PericenterDistance 0.7171772 # q
MeanAnomaly 346.05031 # M
}
RotationPeriod 0.9 #Guess
Albedo 0.15 #Based on typical Stony asteroids, rotation periods vary from one hour to one day
}
========================================================
Labels: asteroids, comet, Hoax
Thursday, August 27, 2015
The Return of The Bride of the Son of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die
Here we are again! The Mars hoax is circulating once more. No, Mars will not be as big as the full Moon, there will be no double Moon in the sky. In fact, Mars is far from opposition and is quite small (it won't be at opposition again until 22 May, 2016 nearly 8 months).
However, on August 27, in the early morning Mars, Venus and Procyon form a nice triangle although Mars will be very difficult to see in the twilight (the image above is at 6:30 am ACST, as seen from Adelaide).
For an overveiw of what the Mars hoax is and why it is so wrong, see the Return of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die.
# posted by Ian Musgrave @ 11:05 p.m. 
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Comet ISON is Not Adjusting its Orbit Around Mars, it's a Hoax.
You may have seen an article circulating through the internet in various venues. It claims that the Russian Federal Space Agency ROSCOSMOS has reported that
Comet C/2012 S1 has made a number of “unexplained orbital adjustments” around the planet Mars seemingly to better align itself with the Red planets strange moon Phobos.
This is a hoax. Comet C/2012 S1 ISON is not orbiting Mars, it will reach Mars on October 1, where it will pass 20 Earth-Moon distances away from the Red Planet, and well away from Phobos. Also the 132 day "standstill" refers to its slow increase in brightness, not any change in orbit. The comet is not much dimmer than expected, and is not under intelligent control (this was another hoax purportedly from Russia that tuned up with comet Elenin)
The author of the article, Sorcha Faal, is a well known hoaxer.
Labels: C/2012 S1 ISON, Hoax, Mars
Monday, August 26, 2013
The Bride of the Son of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die
However, on August 27, in the early morning Mars, Jupiter and Procyon form a nice triangle (the image to the left is at 6:00 am ACST, as seen from Adelaide).
For an overveiw of what the Mars hoax is and why it is so wrong, see the Return of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Yet Another Asteroid Hoax (There will be no Meteor Hitting Mexico this Month)
There is currently a story circulating, allegedly from a Professor Herbert Raymond Brown, that a 300 meter diameter asteroid called DA2013cl2 will impact the Atlantic Ocean (or Canada or Mexico) on 25 March. This impact will allegedly kill millions first off, then exterminate the rest of humanity later on.
This is a hoax. There are a number of ways you can tell it is a hoax.
1) The story is illustrated with a picture of comet C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS, not an asteroid.
2) It does not have a real asteroid name, asteroids that do not have proper names (like 4 Vesta), are named year, alphabetical identifier, numerical identifier (eg 2012 DA14). There's a 2013 CL2, but that comes nowhere near us, there's a 2013 CL22, which has a 1/10,000,000 chance of hitting us in 2064, but nothing that fits the hoax description.
3) A 300 meter asteroid impact would be serious, with an impact energy of 1110 Mt or TNT, creating a crater 4.6 Km in diameter, but it's no civilisation killer. The Creataceous/Tertiary impactor that did in the dinosaurs (at least in part) was around 10 Km in diameter.
4) Outside of the various posts promulgating this story, there is no astronomy Professor Herbert Raymond Brown
5) There is no high risk asteroid of any sort in the asteroid hazard lists.
This is a hoax. There are a number of ways you can tell it is a hoax.
1) The story is illustrated with a picture of comet C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS, not an asteroid.
2) It does not have a real asteroid name, asteroids that do not have proper names (like 4 Vesta), are named year, alphabetical identifier, numerical identifier (eg 2012 DA14). There's a 2013 CL2, but that comes nowhere near us, there's a 2013 CL22, which has a 1/10,000,000 chance of hitting us in 2064, but nothing that fits the hoax description.
3) A 300 meter asteroid impact would be serious, with an impact energy of 1110 Mt or TNT, creating a crater 4.6 Km in diameter, but it's no civilisation killer. The Creataceous/Tertiary impactor that did in the dinosaurs (at least in part) was around 10 Km in diameter.
4) Outside of the various posts promulgating this story, there is no astronomy Professor Herbert Raymond Brown
5) There is no high risk asteroid of any sort in the asteroid hazard lists.
Labels: asteroids, Hoax, Pseudoscience
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
The Son of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die
Sheesh is it that time of year again? The Mars hoax is circulating once more. No, Mars will not be as big as the full Moon, there will be no double Moon in the sky. In fact, Mars is very, very far from opposition and is almost at its smallest (it won't be at opposition again until 2012). However, on August 27, in the early evening Mars, Venus and Spica from a nice triangle. For an overveiw of what the Mars hoax is and why it is so wrong, see the Return of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Double Moon and Mars, it's a Hoax
To everybody out there searching with the string "double moon" hoping to find out about the Mars event supposedly occurring on August 27, it's a hoax, Mars will not appear as big as the full Moon. But you are picking up some nice shots by correspondent Tony Travaglia.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Return of the Zombie Mars Hoax that will not Die
Left image, telescopic view of Mars as seen from Earth during the August 2003 opposition, Right Image, Mars at the same scale as will be seen at the next opposition on 30 January 2010.
Once again, as it has every two years since 2003 during the Great Opposition of Mars, the Mars Hoax is back. People are receiving very long and graphic heavy emails claiming Mars will look as big as the Full Moon in August, the time of the 2003 opposition. Even in 2003, Mars would not have looked as big as the full Moon. Mars was 25 arc seconds across, hardly the diameter of the full Moon even through a modest telescope. The Moon is 0.5 degrees across, about half a fingerwidth, Mars was less than 1/60 of that. The human eye can only see things larger than 1.2 minutes of arc as anything other than a point, and Mars was a 1/3 of this limit in size.
The images above would only be seen through powerful telescopes. This set of images taken with my Webcam gives a better idea of what someone would have seen with a modest telescope.Mars is not even at opposition this year, it will be at opposition on 30 January 2010, with a rather ordinary apparent diameter of 14 arc seconds (see righthand image above). This will be a visible disk in even small telescopes, but you will need a modest diameter scope to see reasonable detail. Mars will be smaller still at the 2012 opposition but starts increasing in size again after this and will be at a similar size to 2003 at its July 2018 opposition (24 arc minutes across).
Yes, it's disappointing that Mars won't be big, but let's use this as a learning moment. Why does Mars's apparent size at opposition keep changing?
Left panel, Mars and Earth at the time of the great opposition in 2003. Right Panel, Earth and Mars at the 2010 opposition (click images to embiggen). Note earth and Mars are much closer in 2003. If you have Celestia, you can model the oppositions and see for yourself.
If the Earth's and Mars's orbits were circular, Mars and Earth would stay a constant distance from each other. But they aren't, they are elliptical. So Earth and Mars draw away from each other and pull close to each other regularly. Earth and Mars are closest when Mars is at it's closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and Earth is at its furthest (aphelion).
Now, if Mars's orbit was an integer multiple of Earth's year, then Earth and Mars would be closest at the same time each year. But they aren't. Mars's year is roughly 1.9 times longer than that of Earth, so the time of Mars's closest approach to the Sun drifts with respect to Earth's furthest distance from the Sun. Earth's Aphelion and Mars's Perihelion align roughly every 15 years. But again, because the years are weird fractions of each other (as well as other orbital jiggery pokery), some alinements are better than others. August 2003 was the best for approach for thousands of years, but the 2050 opposition will only be a smidgen smaller.
Mars may not be as big as the Full Moon at the moment, but it is in some beautiful territory at the moment. As Mars grows brighter and brighter, and comes close to the Beehive cluster, it will be a magnificent sight.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The Mars Hoax Rides Again
Yes, it's that time of year again when a (very large) emial cirulates saying Mars will be as big as the full Moon this August.
No it won't, it's a hoax. See "The Zombie Mars Hoax That will Not Die"
No it won't, it's a hoax. See "The Zombie Mars Hoax That will Not Die"
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Yes, the Mars Hoax is still with us.
People are still getting the Mars Hoax email (See the Zombie Mars Hoax that would not die). No, Mars will not rival the Moon on August 27, see this nice NASA post for the full story. Drop in to the NASA Mars Rovers page for the latest news about the dust storms and the Rovers (things are getting better, or check out the International Mars watch images.
UPDATE: I wondered why I was persistently getting lots of hits on a readers photo of a double Moon mirage, it turns out it's people searching for the "double Moon" (Mars as big as the full Moon) of the Mars hoax. Feh!
UPDATE: I wondered why I was persistently getting lots of hits on a readers photo of a double Moon mirage, it turns out it's people searching for the "double Moon" (Mars as big as the full Moon) of the Mars hoax. Feh!
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
The Zombie Mars Hoax That Will Not Die!
It's BAAACCKK!!! Yes, the Mars Hoax is circulating again. First surfacing in 2003, during the great opposition of Mars, it seems to pop up regularly around August, the time of the 2003 opposition. Mars is at opposition this year, but on December 25th, with a rather ordinary apparent diameter of 16 arc seconds (the August 2003 opposition Mars was 25 arc seconds across, hardly the diameter of the full moon, even through a modest telescope). This will be a visible disk in even small telescopes, but you will need a modest diameter scope to see reasonable detail. We don't get to see Mars at a decent diameter again until May 2016. In the meantime, check out J Beish's guide to the 2007 opposition of Mars, or drop in to the International Mars Watch site, for the slightly oldish news and some great image archives. The images show the dust storm that is threatening the Mars Rovers. Check out Tom's story on this, as well as his story on the Mars dust devil.
Labels: Hoax, Mars, Opposition
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