Astroblog: November 2021

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Thursday December 2 to Thursday December 9

The New Moon is Saturday, December 4. The thin crescent Moon is near Mars low in the morning twilight. Three bright planets are seen forming a line in the early evening sky. Venus is readily visible in the early evening sky forming a line with Saturn and Jupiter in the western evening sky with Jupiter dominating once Venus has set.Venus is at its greatest brilliance on the 4th. The crescent Moon visits Venus on the 7th and Saturn on the 8th.

The New Moon is Saturday, December 4. The Moon is at perihelion, when it is closest to the earth, at this time.

Morning sky on December 3 looking east as seen from Adelaide at 5:25 ACDST (30 minutes before sunrise). Mars is close to the thin crescent Moon low in the twilight, you may need binoculars to see Mars clearly.

Similar views will be seen throughout Australia at the equivalent local time (30 minutes before sunrise, click to embiggen).

Evening sky on Saturday December 4 looking west as seen from Adelaide at 21:53 ACDST (90 minutes after sunset). Venus is at its greatest brilliance and is forming a line with Saturn and Jupiter.

The insets shows the telescopic views of Venus, Saturn and Jupiter at this time. Venus is a distinct crescent now. Similar views will be seen throughout Australia at the equivalent local time (90 minutes after sunset, click to embiggen).

Evening sky on Tuesday December 7 looking west as seen from 21:57 ACDST (90 minutes after sunset). Venus is close to the Crescent Moon and forms a line with Saturn and Jupiter. The insets shows the telescopic view of Venus.

The inset shows the telescopic view of Venus at this time. Venus is a distinct crescent now. Similar views will be seen throughout Australia at the equivalent local time (90 minutes after sunset, click to embiggen).

Whole sky showing Jupiter, Saturn and Venus in a line, Saturday December 4, 21:53 ACDST, 90 minutes after sunset (click to embiggen). Orion, Taurus and the Pleiades can be seen above the eastern horizon.

Elsewhere in Australia will see a similar planetary line up that the equivalent time (90 minutes after sunset).

Mercury is lost in the morning twilight.

Venus is visible in the early evening when the sky is fully dark. I have been able to see Venus from just after sunset and it is easily seen over 3 hours after sunset, longer if you have a clear western horizon. Venus is at its greatest brilliance, forming a line with Saturn and Jupiter. It is now a distinct crescent in even small telescopes.

Mars is low in the twilight and is close to the thin crescent Moon on the 3rd, you may need binoculars to see Mars clearly.

Jupiter is rising before sunset and is readily visible when the sky is fully dark. Venus, Saturn and Jupiter form a line in the sky. Jupiter is still excellent in even small telescopes, but the window of telescopic observation is closing as it sets earlier.

Saturn is rising well before sunset. Saturn is still excellent in even small telescopes, but the window of telescopic observation is closing as it sets earlier.

Printable PDF maps of the Eastern sky at 10 pm AEST, Western sky at 10 pm AEST. For further details and more information on what's up in the sky, see Southern Skywatch.

Star Map via Virtual sky. Use your mouse to scroll around and press 8 when your pointer is in the map to set to the current time.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/

Labels: weekly sky

# posted by Ian Musgrave @ 11:56 pm 0 comments

Friday, November 26, 2021

No, the mRNA vaccines do not increase your risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome

Anti-vaccinationists have been promoting an abstract of a poster to be presented at the forthcoming American Heart Association meeting as A) a peer-reviewed publication (it's not, conference poster abstracts are not peer-reviewed in any meaningful sense, and it is flagged with an expression of concern) and B) demonstrating significant heart inflammation which increases cardiac risk. The abstract states:

We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.

Except well.. it doesn't. (EDIT: I have now seen the poster, it's even worse than I thought, see below)

I graphed the data from the abstract, it doesn't support the claims, basically, the inflammatory markers are not elevated. Look at the error bars, they are very wide and overlap substantially between pre- and post- vax measures, which means there is no meaningful difference between the figures, indeed for IL-16 there is a possibility that the real postvax value is actually lower than prevax).

The PULS test (Protein Unstable Lesion Signature Test, mistyped as PLUS in the abstract, the author couldn't even get the name of the test he used right), measures a panel of 9 proteins associated with atherosclerotic plaques, including proteins related to inflammation, apoptosis, thrombosis and vascular remodeling (IL-16, sFas, Fas ligand, HGF, HDL, Eotaxin, MCP-3, CTACK and HbA1c, don't worry about what all the abbreviations mean) as well as things like blood pressure and cholesterol levels to predict the likelihood of a cardiac event (from rupture of a blood vessel in the heart to clotting, etc.).

I could find no independent validation of this test (one site that sells this test claimed 61% predictive utility for any cardiac event, not that good even for the intended use. A similar test, the CHDRA algorithm, has been tested and is somewhat better than the Framingham risk score in predicting 5 year risk of cardiac events but again incorporates a lot more data than just the panel of 9 proteins (and is still only moderately better than tossing a coin).

Importantly the CHDRA algorithm is meant to weigh long term risk factors against the risk of cardiac events, not transient changes associated with infection or vaccination.

However, note that only 3 of the 9 proteins in the CHDRA panel are reported, not enough to calculate a coronary risk score. Furthermore, there is no actual data shown (eg. IL-16 is normally reported in ng/Litre or pg/mL), just an arbitrary "elevation above the norm". There is no indication of how the "normal" baseline is determined (what is population the "norm was based on? how many subjects, what was their health status? what age and sex distribution?). Are they using an average value or the upper limit of the reference range (however derived)?

There is no indication of inter-test variability (ie how variable is the data from a the same subject taken three months apart, is the variation shown just the normal variability of the populations?). Normal changes over time not controlled for, there is no group of similarly aged people who have not been vaccinated tested over the same time interval.

Detail from Figure 2B of this paper looking at inflammatory markers after injection with the Pfizer vaccine.

Then again, it's not like finding inflammatory markers 2-10 days after a vaccination which induces inflammation is a surprise. We already knew that.

If you look at the panel to the left you can see that IL-16 is elevated on days 2 and 8 after vaccination and returns to baseline by day 22. That the PULS test results in the abstract can't even show this clearly shows how rubbish the study is.

The data not only fail to show a consistent increase in the 3 of 9 biomarkers they picked, they also show no evidence of endothelial inflammation (IL-16 is produced by many cells, including lymphocytes that would be expected to be activated by vaccines (or infection) let along T-cell infiltration of cardiac muscle (that's basically made up).

And they get the side effects of the vaccine wrong. Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia is a (very rare) side effect of the adenovirus vaccines not the mRNA vaccines. Myocarditis is a rare side effect of the mRNA vaccines, hard to distinguish from the background rate in the population, and COVID-19 produces about 4 times the rate of myocarditis as seen with the vaccine.

Take home message: While we might expect to see some inflammation after vaccination, this abstract can't even show that, let alone show it has anything to do with the heart. In short, it is nonsense.

EDIT: I have now seen the poster, it's worse. The poster is basically the abstract with two panels showing data reports from patients. The data is already in a transformed state, reported as a "%event rate ratio", with no indication of how you get from pg/ml IL-16 to an event rate ratio and then get to an "above the norm" figure with no units. Patient 1's data is identical pre and post-vaccine with the same ACS risk. Patient 2 has the same risk rations pre and post, despite having a different profile AND Patient 2's ACS risk is identical to patient 1's. Furthermore, both Patient 1 and Patient 2 reports were generated at exactly the same date and time, which is ... unlikely.

The only "evidence" for T-cell infiltration of cardiac tissue is the marginally elevated HGF score, which is probably not statistically significant. But HGF (Hepatocyte Growth Factor) is elevated in a range of inflammatory states (eg pancreatitis) and says nothing about T-cell infiltration of cardiac tissue in and of itself.

Revised Take Home Message: Still nonsense.

Labels: Science Blogging, vaccines

# posted by Ian Musgrave @ 7:34 pm 11 comments

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Thursday November 25 to Thursday December 2

The Last Quarter Moon is Saturday, November 27. Three bright planets are seen forming a line in the early evening sky. Venus is readily visible in the early evening sky above the handle of the teapot of Sagittarius. Saturn and Jupiter are visible in the western evening sky with Jupiter dominating once Venus has set.

The Last Quarter Moon is Saturday, November 27.

Evening sky on Saturday, November 27 looking west as seen from Adelaide at 21:53 ACDST (90 minutes after sunset). Venus is above the handle of the "teapot" of Sagittarius forming a line with Saturn and Jupiter.

The insets shows the telescopic views of Venus, Saturn and Jupiter at this time. Venus is a distinct crescent now and Ganymede is coming out from behind Jupiter. Similar views will be seen throughout Australia at the equivalent local time (90 minutes after sunset, click to embiggen).

Whole sky showing Jupiter, Saturn and Venus in a line , November 27, 21:53 ACDST, 90 minutes after sunset (click to embiggen). Orion, Taurus and the Pleiades can be seen above the eastern horizon.

Elsewhere in Australia will see a similar planetary line up that the equivalent time (90 minutes after sunset).

Mercury is lost in the morning twilight.

Venus is visible in the early evening when the sky is fully dark. I have been able to see Venus from just after sunset and it is easily seen over 3 hours after sunset, longer if you have a clear western horizon. Venus is above the handle of the teapot of Sagittarius, forming a line with Saturn and Jupiter. It is now a distinct crescent in even small telescopes.

Mars is lost in the twilight.

Saturn is rising well before sunset. Saturn is still excellent in even small telescopes, but the window of telescopic observation is closing as it sets earlier.

# posted by Ian Musgrave @ 10:12 pm 0 comments

Thursday, November 18, 2021

No, you can't "Detox" from the COVID vaccines (or any other vaccine)

You may have heard of people offering "Detoxes" to"remove" the COVID vaccines. These range from "Detox" baths of Epsom salts and/or Borax, to snake venom removal kits, to the ancient technique of cupping.

None work, some are dangerous and all are based on a complete misunderstanding of how vaccines work.

The currently available vaccines are mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), and adenovirus vector vaccines (AstraZeneca, Jannsen). In the first two, the mRNA from the spike protein is encapsulated in a lipid shell, in the latter two this is carried in a viral particle.

When the injection is given into the muscle tissue of your arm the vaccine solution containing the vectors (be they lipid nanoparticles or virtual particles) rapidly distributes into the extracellular water (the fluids between the cells in tissues) and the particles bind to cells and deliver the mRNA into the cells.By the time a "detox" method is applied, most of the vector particles will have already delivered their mRNA payloads into the cells.Borax, Epsom salts, and the like "detoxes" act by being a hypertonic solution (ie being much "saltier" than your tissue fluid), drawing body water out as your body tries to dilute the concentrated salt solution it is immersed in.

But this is the issue, these salt baths will remove water, but not large molecules like the lipid or viral particles (any that have not already been taken up), these cannot pass the tissue barriers In your body (if anything, it will concentrate the vaccine components slightly in your tissues). While Epsom salts are largely benign on the skin, Borax can cause skin and eye irritation, and some people have reported skin burns from its use. It definitely should not be consumed.Snake venom extraction kits have been also proposed to "suck out the vaccine", they apply negative pressure to draw fluid out, as for the detox baths they will not draw out any vaccine, just a little (if any) tissue water and possibly concentrate the vaccine. They don't work for snakebite either and may cause tissue damage.https://www.snakebitefoundation.org/blog/2019/1/20/the-truth-about-commercial-snakebite-kits-and-venom-extractorsCupping has also been proposed to remove vaccines. In cupping heated cups are placed on the skin to create a partial vacuum next to the body as the air inside the cups cools down. This might draw out a little body water but will not remove the vaccine. If anything it might increase vaccine absorption. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2296526-covid-19-vaccine-tested-with-suction-technique-similar-to-cupping/

Cupping tends to leave large bruises from bursting blood vessels, a version called wet cupping involves cutting the skin to draw blood before applying suction with the cups. This will draw some blood from the broken surface capillaries but not draw out the extracellular fluid from deep in the muscle where the vaccine was injected.

So bottom line: Vaccine "detoxes" at the best will increase the uptake of the vaccine and at the worst cause harm, without removing any vaccine.

Labels: science matters, vaccines

# posted by Ian Musgrave @ 3:31 pm 0 comments

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Twilight Lunar exclipse (19 November, 2021)


Evening sky on November 19 looking east as seen Adelaide at 20:31 ACDST, at civil twilight. Click to embiggen.	Evening sky on November 19 looking east as seen Brisbane at 19:02 AEST, at mid eclipse

Evening sky on November 19 looking east as seen Melbourne at 20:43 AEST, at civil twilight	Evening sky on November 19 looking east as seen from Sydney at 20:02 AEDST at mid eclipse

Thus Friday (19 November) we have a twilight Partial Lunar Eclipse, while its is a very deep partial eclipse, almost total, it will be difficult to see as most of the eclipse occurs in the twilight (see times for major cities below, bolded times are for mid-eclipse occurring after civil twilight).

The Moon rises eclipsed and the shadow slips off the Moon during twilight. Best seen from the east coast, the central states see the final parts of the eclipse in twilight and Western Australia sees virtually nothing. Still will be interesting to see for eastern and central states though.

You don't need special filters or fancy equipment to watch the lunar eclipse, you just need your eyes and somewhere comfortable to sit and watch. Watching the shadow of earth creep across the Moons' face is quite entrancing.

As most of the eclipse occur in the twilight, the eclipsed section of the Moon will be a ghostly ashen colour against the lighted segment (rather than the reddish colour seen after full dark), which adds an extra element to this eclipse. The Moon may be difficult to spot on the East Coast as it rises eclipsed in the east.This is also almost an apogee full Moon ("mini Moon") with apogee occurring on the 21st.

City	Eclipse start	Moon rise	Mid eclipse	Civil twilight	Eclipse end	Nautical twilight
Adelaide ACDST	17:48	19:59	19:32	20:31	21:17	21:06
Brisbane AEST	17:18	18:14	19:02	18:46	20:47	19:16
Cairns AEST	17:18	18:26	19:02	18:54	20:47	19:22
Canberra AEDST	18:18	19:46	20:02	20:20	21:47	20:55
Darwin ACST	16:48	18:51	18:32	19:16	20:17	19:43
Freemantle AWST	15:18	18:58	17:02	19:25	18:47	19:58
Hobart AEDST	18:18	19:43	20:02	20:21	21:47	21:03
Melbourne AEDST	18:18 AEDST	20:09	20:02	20:43	21:47	21:19
Perth AWST	15:18	18:58	17:02	19:25	18:47	19:58
Sydney AEDST	18:18	19:34	20:02	20:07	21:47	20:41