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Saturday, October 06, 2018

 

[Aurora Alert] Geomagnetic warning and Aurora Watch (7-9 October)

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning  and aurora watch for 7-9 October (UT) due to ongoing solar wind streams from a coronal hole. This should peak anytime during the 7th to 8th, with activity extending out to the 9th.  The SWS predicts active conditions with the possibility of outbreaks of minor storms on the 8th.  It is not clear if the solar wind will impact during night time hours, abut it would pay to be alert from twilight on the 7th.


The Space Weather Prediction Service predicts G1 -G2 storms will occur between 4 am to sunrise on the 8th. However they may arrive earlier or later.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania, the  coastline of Victoria and the Southwest coast of Western Australia.weather permitting. The Moon is New  and will not significantly interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is may possibly be quite good, definitely worth a look as viewing conditions are good (the Full Moon aurora on August 26 was good for those with clear skies despite the Moonlight, as was very active despite initial predictions of not much happening).

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/22
ISSUED AT 0417UT/05 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active levels
on UT day 7 Oct and to minor storm levels on 8 Oct. There is
a remote chance that for short periods the geomagnetic activity
may even reach major storm levels during this interval. The disturbance
is due to the expected arrival of CIR and HSS associated with
a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal
hole. The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 7
and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest
coast of Western Australia.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 07-09 OCTOBER 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
07 Oct:  Active
08 Oct:  Minor Storm
09 Oct:  Active
_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT 0424 UT ON 05 Oct 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

A large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal hole
is rotating into a geoeffective position that is favourable for
possible auroral activity. The aurora may be visible on the local
nights of the 7 and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and
Southwest coast of Western Australia. Warnings and/or alerts will
follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.


Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

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