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Friday, November 06, 2015

 

Aurora Watch and Planet Dance (7-8 November)

Launceston
 K-Index plot diagramThe Australian Space Weather Service (SWS formerly the IPS) has now  issued a Geomagnetic Alert and and Aurora Watch for possible aurora in southern Australia from 7 November from a CME impact. The NOAA site has a predicted G1 storm but confusingly, has them arriving 24 hours later than the SWS on 8 November (see also the Aurora Services forecast).

So it is best to watch on the 7th, but be prepared for the actual impacts to be on the 8th. In the last two geomagnetic storms the best views were from 11:30 pm - 12:30 am the following day. While not as strong as the impact from the previous coronal hole, there is a strong possibility we will get unaided eye visible aurora in both Tasmania and the Southern mainland. Evening skies are clear of the Moon, and the crescent Moon lines up with the bright planets on the morning of the 7th and 8th.  It looks like the weather will be reasonably clear on at least the 7th. For more details of the line-up see
http://astroblogger.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/the-crescent-moon-joins-line-up-of.html
Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows,beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora and a large green "blob" has been seen.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

The all sky aurora camera in Northern Tasmania at Cressy may be helpful.
<http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/4/2>

SUBJ: IPS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 2322 UT ON 05 Nov 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

The partial halo coronal mass ejection associated with the 4 November
M3.7 flare has an earth-directed component. It is likely to impact
earth late on UT day Nov 06/2200 or thereabout. As
a result, minor to major geomagnetic storms could occur on UT day 07
Nov depending on IMF Bz conditions. Aurora sightings are likely on the
evenings of 7 Nov from Southern Australian regions, such as Tasmania
and Victoria.

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 15/50
ISSUED AT 2320UT/05 NOVEMBER 2015
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The partial halo coronal mass ejection associated with the 4
November M3.7 flare has an earth-directed component. It is likely
to impact earth late on UT day Nov 06/2200 or thereabout. As
a result, minor to major geomagnetic storms could occur on UT
day 07 Nov depending on IMF Bz conditions. Aurora sightings are
likely on the evenings of 7 Nov from Southern Australian regions,
such as Tasmania and Victoria.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 07-08 NOVEMBER 2015
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
07 Nov:  Active to Minor Storm
08 Nov:  Unsettled to Active

Further monitoring at http://www.ips.gov.au

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