Astroblog

A halo coronal mass ejection was observed on 30-Jun, associated with an X1.0 flare. Modelling suggests this CME will have a glancing impact with Earth on 03/0500UT +/- 10 hours (early evening on the 3rd AEST). Intervals of G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast on 03-Jul due to this impact, decreasing to G0-G1 on 04-Jul. Currently conditions are quiet.

If storms eventuate, visible aurora may be seen in Tasmania southern parts of Victoria, and possibly southern South Australia, during local night hours. In the early evening bright Venus in the east will brighten your aurora hunting.

The Moon is approaching Last Quarter and will not interfere too much. In the early morning Mars and Uranus are at their closest together in binoculars on the 4th and 5th and the pair are also midway between the Pleiades and Hyades clusters. Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, mostly green at the moment.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky. https://www.skippysky.com.au/Australia/index.html
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/
_____________________________________________________________

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED 
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 03-04 JULY 2026
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
03 Jul:  G2
04 Jul:  G0-G1
==================================================== 

Labels: aurora

Despite the hopeful predictions, it looks like the last set of CME's completely missed earth. Fingers crossed this time.

The Earth is expected to become influenced by a recurrent coronal hole on June 12 (Universal time, probably morning of the 13th in Australia) to induce G1 geomagnetic activity with a chance of G2. 

A CME launched on 11 June is expected to arrive with a glancing blow early on UT day 13 June to induce G2 geomagnetic conditions. Residual disturbances are likely to continue into 14 June, giving G1 geomagnetic conditions with a chance for G2 periods on this day.

If storms eventuate, visible aurora may be seen in Tasmania southern parts of Victoria, and possibly southern South Australia, Western Australia and NSW during local night hours. In the early evening the planetary massing of Mercury, Jupiter and Venus in the east will add spice to your aurora hunting.

The Moon is approaching New. In the early morning it is close to Mars on the 13th,It will not interfere too seeing aurora in the early morning.  Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, mostly green at the moment.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky. https://www.skippysky.com.au/Australia/index.html
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/
_____________________________________________________________

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED 
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 12-14 JUNE 2026
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
12 Jun:  G1, chance G2
13 Jun:  G2
14 Jun:  G1, chance G2 

Labels: aurora

The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre reports three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed associated with two M-class and one X-class flares from region 4455. 

Modelling indicates the second and third CMEs have an estimated arrival at Earth on 05-Jun at 10:00UT +/- 10 hrs (anywhere from 2pm the 5th AEST to 6 am the 6th AEST). G2 planetary geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance of G3.

If storms eventuate, visible aurora may be seen in Tasmania and possibly southern parts of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during local night hours. 

The Moon is waning and heading towards Last Quarter. It will interfere with seeing aurora in the early morning.  Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

Current K index is 2 and 
Solar Wind Parameters Used: Date: 05 06 2026 0706 UT
Velocity: 454 km/sec
Bz: -1.0 nT
Density = 8.0 p/cc

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, mostly green at the moment.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky. https://www.skippysky.com.au/Australia/index.html
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/
_____________________________________________________________

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED 
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 05-06 JUNE 2026
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

05 Jun:  G2, chance G3
06 Jun:  G0-G1
====================================================

Labels: aurora

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/ 

A minor geomagnetic storm (G1) with a Kindex of 5 is currently ongoing. And yes, it's daylight. 

If this storm persists and strengthens (there is a prediction of G3 major storm levels), there is a strong possibility of aurora.  

As I wrote before, the Moon is in crescent phase and will not interfere with seeing aurora in the evening and early morning.  Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

As of now the solar wind conditions are:
Solar Wind Parameters Used:
   Date: 21 03 2026 0601 UT
   Velocity:   452 km/sec
   Bz:   -3.0 nT
   Density =    8.0 p/cc

Calculated Information from Solar wind parameters:
   Magnetopause Stand Off Distance  =   10.6Re
   Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Dp =   1.36nPa
**********************************************************************************

G1 (MINOR) GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 5 REACHED)
PRELIMINARY AUSTRALIAN REGION K INDICES FOR 20 03 26: 2334 3345

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
21 Mar:  G2-G3
22 Mar:  G1-G2
23 Mar:  G0-G2

*****************************************************************************

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, mostly green at the moment.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky. https://www.skippysky.com.au/Australia/index.html
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/

Cheers! Ian  
      ianfmusgrave@gmail.com
Astroblog: https://astroblogger.blogspot.com
 

 

Labels: aurora

 

Image from the  BOM space weather site. 

Two CME arrivals are happening in the coming days. The first CME is associated with the M2.7 flare on 16-Mar which is expected to arrive at 19/1800UT +/ 12 hours (that's either early morning on the 20th or very late on the 19th in Australia). 

The second CME is associated with another M2.7 flare on 18-Mar and is expected to arrive at 20/1700UT +/- 12 hours. 

In addition, solar wind 27 day recurrent patterns suggest coronal hole wind streams are likely to increase the solar wind speed over 21-23 March.

Some recent storms occurred during daylight hours in Austral, but lets hope we are lucky with night arrivals as this time as conditions are good.

If storms eventuate, visible aurora may be seen in Tasmania and possibly southern parts of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during local night hours. 

The Moon is in crescent phase and will not interfere with seeing aurora in the evening and early morning.  Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, mostly green at the moment.

Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky. https://www.skippysky.com.au/Australia/index.html
Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds (day and night) http://satview.bom.gov.au/
_____________________________________________________________

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED 
FROM 19-23 MARCH 2026
_____________________________________________________________
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
19 Mar:  Initially G0, then G1-G2
20 Mar:  G1-G2 (minor to moderate)
21 Mar:  G1-G2 (minor to moderate)
22 Mar:  G0-G1 (minor to moderate)

Labels: aurora

 

Image screen capture from https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather

This morning a G4 geomagnetic storm saw auroras as far north as Dubbo, NSW (at 5 am!).  The storm continued during daylight hours in Australia, dying down before sunset. there is currently a G1 storm going on and some aurora are bring reported in Victoria, and another G4 session is predicted for later tonight. 

The Moon is just past new and will not significantly interfere  with seeing aurora.  Keep an eye out and be patient, as the magnetic polarity of the wind fluctuates significantly and aurora may come and go.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows.

Labels: aurora

The The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning  and aurora watch for 27 September- 28 September due to the effects of a large coronal hole. Currently geomagnetic conditions are quiet, but may reach minor storm levels late on the evening of the 27th or on September the 28th. Aurora could be seen in Southern Australia under dark sky conditions. Tasmania and Southern Victoria should see something if aurora occur.



The Space Weather Prediction Service predicts G1 -G2 storms will occur between 4 am to sunrise on the 28th and may continue into the early evening of the 28th. However they may arrive earlier or late

The Moon almost new will not interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences".

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  
======================================================================
SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 19/19
ISSUED AT 2354UT/28 AUGUST 2019
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

In the second half of UT day 31 August, global geomagnetic activity
may reach Active and Minor Storm levels due arrival of corotating
interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 31 AUGUST 2019
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
31 Aug:  Quiet to Minor Storm
====================================================================
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 2331 UT ON 25 Sep 2019 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Effects of a coronal hole are expected to impact the Earth within the
next 48 hours, possibly resulting in significant geomagnetic activity
and visible auroras during local nighttime hours. Aurora alerts will
follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.


Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued an geomagnetic alert for warning for 31 August due to the arrival of a corotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Currently geomagnetic conditions are quiet, but may reach minor storm levels late on the evening of the 31st  or early morning on September the 1st. Aurora could be seen in Southern Australia under dark sky conditions. Tasmania sand Southern Victoria should see something if aurora occur.

The Moon is just past new will not interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences".

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  
======================================================================
SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 19/19
ISSUED AT 2354UT/28 AUGUST 2019
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

In the second half of UT day 31 August, global geomagnetic activity
may reach Active and Minor Storm levels due arrival of corotating
interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 31 AUGUST 2019
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
31 Aug:  Quiet to Minor Storm
====================================================================
SUBJ: SWS AURORA OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT 0139 UT ON 29 Aug 2019 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Effects of a coronal hole are expected to impact the Earth on 31
August and 1 September, possibly resulting in significant geomagnetic
activity and visible auroras during local nighttime hours from
Tasmania and Coastline of Victoria. Aurora alerts will follow if
significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.

Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued an aurora and geomagnetic alert for now (G1 storm in progress) and aurora watch for 14-17 May (UT) due to impacts from slow moving coronal mass ejections. Currently the local Kindex is 5, and if it persists aurora may be seen in Southern Australia under dark sky conditions. No aurora have been reported form Australia yet, but reports from New Zealand are coming in.

The Moon is waxing and will interfere a bit with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

It is hard to predict how any aurora will look, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good (the Full Moon aurora on August 26 was good for those with clear skies despite the Moonlight, as was very active despite initial predictions of not much happening).

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 14-17 MAY 2019
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 May:  Unsettled to Active
15 May:  Active to Minor Storm
16 May:  Minor Storm
17 May:  Initially at Minor storm, then Quiet

=========================================================

SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0617 UT ON 14 May 2019 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Solar wind parameters suggest that the Earth may be currently under
the influence of unanticipated CME. There is a chance aurora may be
visible tonight (14 May) over southern Australian regions,
particularly for Tasmania. The previous two slow moving CMEs
originating from disappearing solar filaments are still expected to
impact the Earth around 05UT on 15 May and 09UT on 16 May,
respectively. Should periods of sustained southward IMF occur, auroral
displays over southern Australian regions are likely to continue on
the local nights of 15 and 16 May. Further Warnings and/or alerts will
follow if a geoeffective CME is observed and/or significant
geomagnetic activity actually occurs.



Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning  and aurora watch for 7-9 October (UT) due to ongoing solar wind streams from a coronal hole. This should peak anytime during the 7th to 8th, with activity extending out to the 9th.  The SWS predicts active conditions with the possibility of outbreaks of minor storms on the 8th.  It is not clear if the solar wind will impact during night time hours, abut it would pay to be alert from twilight on the 7th.


The Space Weather Prediction Service predicts G1 -G2 storms will occur between 4 am to sunrise on the 8th. However they may arrive earlier or later.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania, the  coastline of Victoria and the Southwest coast of Western Australia.weather permitting. The Moon is New  and will not significantly interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is may possibly be quite good, definitely worth a look as viewing conditions are good (the Full Moon aurora on August 26 was good for those with clear skies despite the Moonlight, as was very active despite initial predictions of not much happening).

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/22
ISSUED AT 0417UT/05 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active levels
on UT day 7 Oct and to minor storm levels on 8 Oct. There is
a remote chance that for short periods the geomagnetic activity
may even reach major storm levels during this interval. The disturbance
is due to the expected arrival of CIR and HSS associated with
a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal
hole. The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 7
and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest
coast of Western Australia.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 07-09 OCTOBER 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
07 Oct:  Active
08 Oct:  Minor Storm
09 Oct:  Active
_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT 0424 UT ON 05 Oct 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

A large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal hole
is rotating into a geoeffective position that is favourable for
possible auroral activity. The aurora may be visible on the local
nights of the 7 and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and
Southwest coast of Western Australia. Warnings and/or alerts will
follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.


Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 10-11 September (UT) due to ongoing solar wind streams from a coronal hole. This anytime during the UT day on the 10th, with activity extending out to the 11th.  The SWS predicts active conditions with the possibility of outbreaks of minor storms on the 11th.  It is not clear if the solar wind will impact during night time hours, abut it would pay to be alert form twilight on the 11th..

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is just past New  and will not significantly interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be spectacular, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good (the Full Moon aurora on August 26 was good for those with clear skies despite the Moonlight, as was very active despite initial predictions of not much hapening).

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/19
ISSUED AT 0031UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active levels
due to the arrival of CIR and HSS associated with a recurrent
equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. A period of significant
southward Bz component could produce Minor Storm levels.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 10-11 SEPTEMBER 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
10 Sep:  Quiet to Active. An isolated Minor Storm period is also possible.
11 Sep:  Active to Minor Storm

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0047 UT ON 10 Sep 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Effects of a coronal hole are expected to impact the Earth within the
next 24 hours, possibly resulting in Minor Storm geomagnetic activity
and visible auroras during local nighttime hours at high latitudes
such as Tasmania. Aurora alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic
activity actually occurs.

Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 1-3 June (UT) due to ongoing solar wind streams from a coronal hole. This anytime the UT day on the 1st, with activity possibly extending out to the 3rd.  The SWS predicts active conditions with the possibility of outbreaks of minor storms.  The Space Weather Prediction Service predicts G1 storms will occur between 7am and 4 pm on the 2nd (ie during daylight), however they may arrive earlier or later.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is waxing to full and will significantly interfere with seeing aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be spectacular, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/11
ISSUED AT 0005UT/30 MAY 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

On 1 June geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active
and Minor Storm levels due to arrival of the corotating interaction
region and high-speed solar wind streams associated with the
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 01 JUNE 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
01 Jun:  Active
_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 2347 UT ON 30 May 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

A coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position that is
favourable for possible Auroral activity. There is an increased chance
of Auroral activity between 1 June and 3 June. Warnings and/or alerts
will follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.

Visit the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 21 April (UT) due to ongoing solar wind streams from a coronal hole. This can be anytime the UT day on the 21st.  The SWS predicts active conditions with the possibility of outbreaks of minor storms. 

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is waxing and will not interfere with aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.




Current condition are not yet conductive to aurora.

• Velocity: 590.8 km/s at 1044 UT on 21 Apr 2018
• Bz: 0.49 nT at 1045 UT on 21 Apr 2018

This event is unlikely to be spectacular, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/08
ISSUED AT 0631UT/20 APRIL 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed stream
from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. Geomagnetic
activity at Quiet to Active levels is expected and at times may
reach up to Minor Storm levels if there are notable southward
Bz periods.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 20-21 APRIL 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
20 Apr:  Quiet to Active
21 Apr:  Quiet to Active

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0117 UT ON 21 Apr 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

The solar wind is currently under the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
reached storm levels on April 20 and is forecast to be at unsettled to
active levels on April 21, with possible isolated minor storm periods.
If significant geomagnetic activity occurs, there will be a chance of
visible auroras for southernmost Australian regions (e.g., Tasmania
and coastline of Victoria) during local nighttime hours. Aurora alerts
will follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs. Visit
the SWS Aurora webpage http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora for current
aurora viewing conditions.


Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 14-15 February (UT) due to expected arrival of a CME from a recent solar flare. This is expected to arrive early in the UT day on the 15th (which is the early evening  of the 15th Australian time) and may persist unlit shortly after midnight.  The SWS predicts active conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service and NOAA has Predicted a G1 storm on the evening of 15 February.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is new and will not interfere with aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be as spectacular as those in last year, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/01
ISSUED AT 0004UT/13 FEBRUARY 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

From late 14 Feb to early 15 Feb magnetic conditions may reach
active to minor storm levels due to expected arrival of the CME
associated with the C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 14-15 FEBRUARY 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 Feb:  Unsettled to Active
15 Feb:  Active

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0024 UT ON 13 Feb 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

An active solar region has rotated into a geoeffective position and
produced a coronal mass ejections (CME). There is an increased chance
of auroral activity during the period 14-17 Feb. Warnings and/or
alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic activity occurs.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

Aurora have been reported from multiple sites in Tasmania with beams, and unconfirmed reports of aurora in Bendigo and ACT. There is a current G1 storm alert. This is despite the conditions for aurora being marginal, Velocity: 426 km/sec Bz: -4.0 nT Density = 24.0 p/cc  but with dark skies it will be well worth having a look. The SWS predicts active conditions will continue for the next day or so. The Space Weather Prediction Service has Predicted a G1 storm around now and the current Kindex is 5 (hence the G1 storm alert).

If the Bz becomes more negative aurora may become more widespread and intense. The Moon is waning, and will not significantly interfere with aurora in the early part of the evening. Especially now be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in last weeks aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ALERT
ISSUED AT 1040 UT ON 07 NOV 2017 BY SPACE WEATHER SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

MINOR (G1 - MINOR) GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 5 REACHED)
PRELIMINARY AUSTRALIAN REGION K INDICES FOR 07 11 17: 1335 ----


FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS EVENT ON THE SWS SPACE WEATHER STATUS PANEL,
HTTP://WWW.SWS.BOM.GOV.AU > SPACE WEATHER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0256 UT ON 06 Nov 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected to impact the Earth
within the next 48 hours, possibly resulting in significant
geomagnetic activity and visible auroras during local nighttime hours.
Aurora alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually
occurs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/54
ISSUED AT 0242UT/06 NOVEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole will soon reach
the geoeffective location on the solar disk. A corotating interaction
region associated with the coronal hole is expected to effect
Earth from late UT day 6 November. On the subsequent two days
(7-8 November) Active to Minor Storm conditions may occur provided
IMF Bz will turn southward for a prolonged period.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 07-08 NOVEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
07 Nov:  Active
08 Nov:  Active



Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 14 October (UT) due to expected arrival of a solar wind stream from a coronal hole. This is expected to arrive early in the UT day on the 14th (which is the evening of the 14th Australian time).  The SWS predicts active to minor storm conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service has Predicted a G1 storm on the early evening of 14 October  and there was a minor geomagnetic storm in the daylight hours earlier.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is past last quarter and will not significantly interfere with aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be as spectacular as those in September, but still worth a look.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/51
ISSUED AT 2319UT/13 OCTOBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for one more day.
The high speed streams associated with a recurrent positive polarity
Northern hemisphere coronal hole is expected to persist for a
few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward
for prolonged periods, earth could experience Minor Storm conditions
13 October.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 14 OCTOBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 Oct:  Active to Minor Storm

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0031 UT ON 14 Oct 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Due the current elevated solar wind streams associated with a
recurrent a coronal hole, expect geomagnetic storming to continue over
the next 24 hours with a chance of visible auroras during local
nighttime hours from southernmost Australian regions.


Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic disturbance alert as the Kp has reached 5 and a minor solar storm is in progress. Camera only aurora are reported in the Huon in Tasmanian. There is also an updated Geomagnetic warning for 15-16 September (UT) due to persistence of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.  There is currently a G1 (minor storm in progress).  The conditions for aurora are marginal, Velocity: 680 km/sec Bz: -1.0 nT Density = 5.0 p/cc  but with dark skies it will be well worth keeping a lookout. The SWS predicts active conditions will continue for the next day or so.. The Space Weather Prediction Service has predicted a G1 storm on  the early morning of September 16th.

If the Bz becomes more negative the aurora may be seen more generally and possibly unaided eye in Tasmania, weather permitting. The Moon is waning, and will not significantly interfere with aurora. especially now Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

Last weeks nearly full Moon aurora on Friday the 8th was readily seen (despite lots of cloud) with some spectacular images of Moonlight aurora (and Moonbows).  Some reports have come from the mainland as well. If this even causes aurora, they wil not be anywhere near as dramatic as that event, but still worth a look.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in last weeks aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ALERT
ISSUED AT 0825 UT ON 15 SEP 2017 BY SPACE WEATHER SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

MINOR (G1 - MINOR) GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 5 REACHED)
PRELIMINARY AUSTRALIAN REGION K INDICES FOR 15 09 17: 335- ----
_____________________________________________________________

FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS EVENT ON THE SWS SPACE WEATHER STATUS PANEL,
HTTP://WWW.SWS.BOM.GOV.AU > SPACE WEATHER

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/46
ISSUED AT 0005UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for two more days.
The high speed streams associated with the coronal hole is expected
to persist for a few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned
strongly southward for prolonged periods, earth could experience
minor storm conditions. Otherwise, expect mostly unsettled to
active condition for the next two days (15 and 16 Sep).

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 15-16 SEPTEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
15 Sep:  Active
16 Sep:  Active



Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

Labels: aurora

Aurora and beams visible to the unaided eye have been reported in  Tasmania (Tunbridge, Barrington, Sandpiper beach and more), despite cloud and strong Moonlight.

After the massive solar storm that entranced northern hemisphere viewers, the storm faded. After not much of anything,  the magnetic filed has turned south again, and unaided eye aurora are being reported, the G3 storms predicted for later.

Current parameters Velocity: 751 km/sec Bz: -15.0 nT Density = 3.0 p/cc Hobart Kindex is now 6. This may change as the night wears on. It is possible aurora may fade then come back as conditions evolve.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc, curtains and picket fences were seen in last weeks aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 1202 UT ON 08 Sep 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

The effects of the recent CME have been waning however the CME
magnetic field turned moderately southward around 11:12UT (9:12 pm
AEST) which is likely to result in improved conditions for aurora
viewing over the coming hours in southern Australian region,
particularly Tasmania.

Labels: aurora

Animated gif showing SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 difference footage of the X9.3 coronal mass ejection as it is ejected into space

Late last night the sun blasted out an X 9.3 solar flare, the largest flare in a decade which sent a coronal mass ejection hurtling towards us. The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 7-9 September (UT) due to expected impact of  a coronal mass ejection on top of the one that has already arrived. 

This CME is expected to arrive late in the UT day on the 7th (which is the morning of the 8th Australian time).  The SWS predicts major to severe storm conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service has Predicted a G2-G3 storm on  8-9 August UT (with most of the action after sunrise on the 8th, but possibly G2 storms around 4 am and some possible action around twilight on the evening of the 9th).

However, uncertainty in the time of arrival may mean the CME arrives earlier of later (with better viewing opportunities for Australia on the evening of the 9th). The First CME predicted yesterday has arrived, but despite favorable solar wind speed and density, the magnetic field remains stubbornly northwards, it may dip south later in the evening, so aurora could still result.

If major to sever storms occur when the second CME arrives and result in aurora they could potentially be seen from as far north as central New South wales, Southern SA and Southern WA. if G2-3 storms persist and weather permitting. The Moon is two day safter full, and will significantly interfere with aurora. That said, last weeks Moonlight aurora was easily seen, and if severe storms occur then aurora should be visible even i strong Moonlight.  Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly. In the last aurora, definite action was seen in the "Blue Hour of twilight", so be alert on the evening of the 7th from twilight on.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc, curtains and picket fences were seen in last weeks aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/43
ISSUED AT 0259UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Expect an additional increase in geomagnetic activity ranging
from Minor Storm to Severe Storm conditions midway through the
UT day, 08 September, particularly at mid to high latitudes.
Storming will likely continue 9 September, ranging from Active
to Major Storm levels.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 08-09 SEPTEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
08 Sep:  Active to Minor Storm
09 Sep:  Major to Severe Storm

_____________________________________________________________

SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0326 UT ON 07 Sep 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

A coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth within the
next 48 hours, possibly resulting in significant geomagnetic activity
and visible auroras during local nighttime hours. Aurora alerts will
follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.

Labels: aurora